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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  February 13, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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creating. not all bankers are bad. i just wanted to point this out. that does it for us here. time for "fast money halftime report." >> thank you, carl. here's where we stand on the street for this month the dow industrials about a half% gain. nasdaq performing. take a look at the commodity space as well. right now $100-16, metals are down across the board, gold showing a decline of some two bucks, so a bid of a modest move. an exclusive interview. he'll tell you where he's seeing the big opportunities now.
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there's the picture, plus apple hitting $500. could a different and share split be next? we'll ask colin gillis. and jeremy linsanity is starting to move stocks. we'll trade the halo later on. welcome to "fast money halftime report." let's get straight to apple's big milestone. dr. j, what do you think? >> very magnetic. no do you this stock was going to hit 500 at this point. now the question is whether it can stay above 500. until they have something more than just these rumors of whether it's the different or iphone 5 or ipad 3 or apple tv, because it won't be itv, according to the british television network, but keep in mind cisco owned iphone, that monday kerr, and apple cut a deal with them for that.
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there's also the possibility of that different and of course a stock split. is 500 a sell signal for you? >> i think there's more room. i still that people can understand it's tough to move the stock, with you i still like it. >> colin had a hold rating. good to have you on the show. >> hey, scott. >> ready to make a change this morning? >> the key thing here is given the weigh best hind apple, we see it will be difficult for this company to outperform it's had a great week. but it's all based on -- first off is the dividend that everyone is expecting when they
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have the shareholder meeting at the end of february. it's important to remember that most of apple's cash, two thirds, is offshore so dividend yield of 3%, that will slightly disappointed people, maybe a 1% at best. >> do they care really? they just want to see a dividend. >> i think the way it tends to work is the actual news tends to disappoint. at $500 here on apple, i would be cautious about putting the new money to work. >> what about the process of a stock split? any possibility that that could happen? >> yeah, it could happen, and advisory there's the theory that it makes it more accessible to retail investors, but in terms of the actual math, there should be no impact. >> brian kelly, a question? >> i do. hey, colin, you mentioned a bunch of different things there
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that are somewhat negative. is there an achilles heat? >> seem just like -- >> yeah, that's a great question. what i would do is pull up the charts, look at nokia, look at r.i.m., htc, most of apple's revenue is coming from the iphone. that's just to stay on -- apple is firing on all cylinders, but there's some close competition, right? they're getting into the hardware space, samsung is now the world's smartphone maker. so there's a lot of fast followers, and they're going to compete on price. >> 37 million, though, col. you know better than me, that's what they mind in the fourth quarter. doesn't seem to be difficult to
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keep up the momentum, and the next version will sell a lot, too. you and me both know that. >> sure, but put it in perspective. we are in the thick of the rotation from features phones to smartphones, right? so 40% of u.s. buyers have already moved over to smartphones. when you move over to the second segment of the people buying smartphones, you're seeing more and more are briding android phones, right? on so again, we have to highlight apple is at the top of its game, but there is concern that people are chasing them on price, and apple will have a difficult time being a high-end premium player as well as a mass market player. >> that 3 out of 5 buying the android. wee do those numbers not bear out in the last quarter. apple actually sold more phones than the android devices did as far as sales, not as far as,
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perhaps, production. >> that was first-time buyers. clearly apple has an installed fan base. price continues to be an important component. >> hey, colin, here is where i think apple can sneak up on you. corporations are opening up both their networks in terms of their pcs to apple products, as well as moving away frommed blackberry to the iphone. so that obvious, that corporate option hasn't been in apple's backyard except for a few select industries. i think you could see growth there. and i'm happy to still be there. i don't own the stock. >> but, el know the enterprise story i think is pretty well known. >> to put some perspective into these numbers, everyone was talking about air force will be buying some ipads, but these are
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some drops in the bucket. apple remains very much consumer driven. i'm not saying it's a sell, right? there's plenty of great things, but given the run that's happening, we would exercise caution. >> colin, great to have you on the show as always. >> grasso, you're trading for the biggest institution, if anything, some say it's the law of large numbers. does that become a deterrent from the orders that you are taking? >> absolutely not. >> if you speak to anything, whether it's an institutional money manager, portfolio manager, no matter the side of the fun, you cannot find a guy that wants to sell apple near term or long term. >> i'm not worried about selling it, but buying in at $500, that's where the knees start
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shaking. >> if you're on the sidelines, you want to wait for this $500 market holds. it sounds silly, because we've seen it parabolic on the way up, but you want to wait and see if those landmark prices hold for at least two or three days. >> will the dow reach 15,000 or higher over the next few years. this week's "barron's," and jeremy siegel will be on "fast money" at 5:00. here as the cover. we could easily see it by the end of next year if europe gets its -- we figure that europe is likely to get the debt crisis under control. the corporate profit question over the long term is an issue too.
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>> i could get a big red nose and join the circus, too, but that's not going to happen. >> leave your weekend job out of this. >> i think, one, we're not talking about an economy, that would be a trend growth and europe still has massive proprocessed. >> even if that works, even if greece passes everything, you're talking about a 15-year recession. i just don't see that -- >> how many products does greece buy, though, b.k.? in other words, if greece goes into that big recession, we all knew the gdp numbers were so pathetically small they don't even show up on most metrics. obviously it's the risk of the banks that lent the money to greece. it's just going to be anarchists left in greece, because virtually anyone with cash is leaving in droves.
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>> when you talk greece, you're talking a proxy for italy and spain. you will have a recession. >> you believe diagnose were ron's" they say 17,000 is a 50/50 bet. ste ste steve weiss what do you want to buy? >> i'm not buying into what jeremy siegel is saying. he's a brilliant guy, but i've never found economists or strategists can make me any moan unless it's james renaissance. so buy the cyclicals as well. >> retail's on fire today, too, coach rising to a report, hitting fresh 52-week highs, include dollar tree, limitedbrands. anybody buying any of these names today? there's a lot of names here, it's coach, dollar tree.
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>> if you look at home depot, what we've been looking at is a recovery in housing. i've seen money flowing in. >> it all has a space. >> dead on correct, the home builders have anticipated a massive recovery. i'd much rather be in home depot than those. >> the home builders probably are at a point where they flattened out. heap dao po, lowe's, all of those. up next, a prolific deal maker gives us the lowdown on his next flay.
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floyd wilson is on deck. much more "halftime report" is on the way. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea.
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photoed earlier that wti crude has topped $100 again. it's basically sitting at 100. brent crude, nat gas is also -- that plays into our next discussion. our gex has history making big-time plays. he created petro hawk for $620 million, sold it last year for $12 billion. floyd wilson is currently chairman and ceo of halcon resources. he joins us to talk about the next big play. welcome to "fast money halftime report." >> thanks for having me. halcon is your new company. is the m.o. going to be the same as it has been in the past with petro hawk? >> of course, in a broad sense, yes. in a specific sense, a bit different.
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some of these great companies in the u.s. created this, know, decline in natural gas prices by creating the new supplies, so halcon will be structured to taking advantage of liquid -- >> this is more of a liquid place than some of your past ventures? >> yes, very much so. >> let me get your outlook, if i may, take crude oil first. wti today sits at $100 a barrel. the risk that's in the market because of what's happening in iran and some of the other geopolitical risks, what is your outlook for crude as we sill here today? >> my outlook is worth about a nickel, so take it for what it's worth. it will always be an importers, so the outlook will be pretty strong for crude for a long, long time. natural gatt is a bit different. we will not ever be an importer as it looks now, perhaps even
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become an exporters, so some of our success will keep weight on the natural gas prices. >> what do you may of where it's currently sitting? 240 i think is what we are saying when we were heading into the segment with you. what level do you need nat gas to be at for the -- for fracking to be profitable? i guess most people hang their hats on three bucks. is that where you see things? >> certainly north of $3. i would look at it more midterm view of supply and demand, and you're going to have to get supply and demand closer. right now the supply far in excess of demand, that's the reason for the lower price. >> i have a number of traders siding around. let's just let everybody know steve weiss is a shareholders, and i was pet roehawk, i hitched a right there when you first came out into the public market
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with it. it was a great rise. today we sea on "wall street journal" about private equity getting more involved in energy. so my question for you is we look at that one of two ways, there's more competition for assets there, number one, you're going to be selling some assets other than the, so it's probably good for that. ultimately for your exit strate strategy. >> is it better or tougher for you? >> you know, i don't really see it -- i don't quite look at it that way. what's better for you is when you embrace the technologies that you use to unlock these things and do it, if you're lucky a bit better than the next guys. the companies in the businesser well positions to do that. and they're a bit behind the learning curve. so they have to actually find the people to go along with the
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money. the people are quite in short supply right now. is sounds like private equity will go after proven reserves rather than exploration. it sounds more like what you're going to be involved in. >> you know, that may be, though i would expect private equity to wake up and understand that prudent reserves are a tough game to play, whereas drilling, if you have the expertise is a great way to make profits. >> what kind of time frame are you on, do you think with halcon where you think it would be ready to grow it enough to a scale where you could possibly sell it? >> we have an aggressive plan in mind, so it's hard to put down an exact time frame, but two, three, four years wouldn't be a big surprise to me. >> mr. wilson, if i could just jump in. if you can get granular for me, what areas of the country are
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the most attractive for you right now? >> i haven't had much opportunity to watch tv for the last few years, but the ones that are emerging, they're all quite interesting to us. we're working in the ohio/pennsylvania area. we're working at a couple plays in texas and louisiana, a couple wildcat ideas that we're working much like we had when we discovered the eagleford shale, so we're not finding a shortage of things to look at nor a shortage of things where we think technology will be appropriate. >> what role do you think politics plays in this, sir? >> what are you thinking about? >> i would go for ronald reagan.
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there's a great bunch of people out there, but politics doesn't seem to be any great friend to the oil and gas sector here in the u.s. very often. with el deal with it, and we'll continue to deal with it. >> i knew there was a reason i liked him. >> and we're seeing balkan oil at $71 a barrel. i'm curious if that is a strategic decision, because it's tough to get the oil out of there. if so, are you concerned at $71 a barrel, there's a big incentive to bring that oil to market. that one will also, it's not so much tied to the location specifically where it is. it's tied to the markets where that crude needs to go.
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those things will change overtime. the differential, as we call it, which would be supplied from a $70 barrel. i've seen companies reporting already the entire 2011 production stream. >> do you think we'll see more international, whether it's seen op opec, stephen, totale, chesapeake. >> it seems inevitable, it seems to be a safer place than their own countries. >> thank you very much. floyd wilson. let's trade that and some of the other names. >> he's come with $550 million
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so i think this is a great way for the individual investor to invest in private equity, so to speak, because that's what he is. he's trading in public markets. you can buy it, put it away and bet on him. >> you know hi track record. he's done this three oar four times before. he tells you up front, i'm going to do this again. >> exact hi. it's taken ron johns been, but he's never created this value by himself, yesterday they have almost doubled the stock. he's told you he's going to do it again. he's good to his word. >> i would do the same. remember that 1 for 3 reverse split. i won't bet against him. i would be a buyer as well. jeremy lin reigniting hosts
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for fans. we have that trade after the break. sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. get 200 free trades today and explore your next investing idea. monarch of marketing analysis. with the ability to improve roi through seo all by cob. and you...rent from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle... and go. you can even take a full-size or above,
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welcome back to the "fast money halftime report" the the knicks are 5-0 under the undrafted harvard grad, and the knicks and new york city fans aren't the only ones benefiting. shares of msg are up 12% or so. the stock's had a pretty good run year to date, weiss. i haven't watched any knicks game this year, but i watched the last two. this kid has people watching the games. >> my wife lawrence asked if we could go to a knicks game for the first time in years and years, but the stock, i think it's over-valued it's limited to what he can do. right now it's five games in, but even if he's the messiah, still limited to what he can do. i would sell the stock. times for pops and drops. avon dropping 1%, doc? >> they're being investigated
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for possibly bribery in china. not a good thing. there are other good things percolating here. >> freeport mac moran. i would be weary of this one. keep that as your ripcord level. >> bank of america popping 3%? >> this is a name again i would use to take some profits here. it's had quite a run, but i would give a pop out for paul pierce. >> and counter. hk. weiss? >> yes. ite great c oeismt in the energy pass. announced today on the ejector pad. so i think you have to keep an eye on the stock right now. coming up our eyes are set on semis? has the sector come too far too
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welcome back to "fast money halftime report." another look at shares of apple,
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breaking $500 for the first time today, pull back to $497. we throw out this question would the dividend be the next thing, the next catalyst to give the stock another leg up. let's her that microsoft has had a dividend for almost ten years or so. and we know what that stock has done or better to say what it hasn't done. >> i do agree it would be a clear diversens from the steve jobs path to the new path. that will get into the retain investor's mind. >> and there's a problem with the success. there's a lot of owners of these weekly options that could afford to exercise those options into stock. if you own a call option, you need to turn it into stock. that's like taking that $500 invest and turning it into 50,000 as far as the dao mand
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for the cash you must have in your account to convert into stock. >> let's find out the top tickers. for now we go to herb greenberg, who's always plugged into the chatter here now that twitter is here. herb. diamond? i'm surprised you're not with telling us why jeremy lin isn't overvalued or something. >> here's the deal with dimon. i was on last week with steve weiss. >> bad memory, but go ahead. >> you own the stock for what is probably a day. i said at the time. what happens in they walk away and roider had a story that said when the contracts are up, possibly many are telling reuters they want to leave. what's what you're hearing from the inside. that's a factor. you have to put that in place with everything else going on with this company. >> weiss put everything into
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play and bought the stock. >> 10% overnight is a good way to go. >> that's 400 million of a billion in revenue. with the market cap trading beloaned 600 million, i'm not pay -- >> then why don't you own it? you're making a strong case for owning the stock for more than -- >> i'd love to answer you. here's the answer. because they don't have enough transparency on the accounting. i'm not saying the accounting is flawed. i'm saying there's not enough transparency for me to get excited. there's other values. i made my money and i've moving on. >> so you're 15u8 there are vulnerabilities to this -- >> i think he's saying that i made fast money and he got out. >> and i thank you for creating the bottom -- >> i didn't create any bottom.
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or top. >> what about salesforce? >> stocks are being chatted up today. this is the second or third day after analysts actually came out last week saying, look, this looks like a strong end to the quarter. i would suspect you would want to pay close attention to the margins on this. there's increased chatter about competition. some people have pointed out it doesn't masse a gaap profit, and there are some issues about that, but -- >> i applaud you for this one. i like the way the stock has acted since oracle added telos. and somebody made a huge profit, i'll just say, from a $6 to a $12 option in two days. that was at the march 125 strike. now they have rolled out to the 135/150 strikes, which nines now they have put even more money on
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the table, betting this stock goes a lot higher over the next 30 days. >> it will be interesting to watch. after the close rack space, of course i point out less than a quarter of its sales come from what you call cloud. i'll be talking to jon fortt about this, on "closing bell." >> now you have like a developing arms race, right? larry ellison goes out and shot right to the bow of -- when he goes for taleo last week, now they're star starting to run up again. survive of the fittest, keep buying. >> that's the classic story on wall street. >> i look at that as one less buyer in the industry. oracle has already bought. >> how do you know they won't buy somebody else? >> they won't buy crm. i think the stock is overvalued.
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i gra el with herb on this. >> i was just pointing out what people were saying, because this has been a tricky company. i've certainly raised red flags over it, and mark over at bernstein has been a fairly big bear with the stock on it. >> i hope you're not standing up yelling. i'm sitting down. >> you made that promise. >> i'm very quiet. >> we'll see how long that lasts. let's good et to some of your tweets. grasso want to take this? >> i've been looking at this, a bit per president-elected. i don't know if i jump back in. i'm not confidence that the sell-off is done. is the recent weakness in the dow jones trst suggesting a pu pullback? >> yeah, downthey're.
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>> you're saying that's the only reason the transports are week? >> that's one, but i think there's not belief in the economy rite now. >> just a reminder, that is a tag on to weiss. that is the most profit a -- if you watch them they felt off. >> nvidia. it's getting set to report fourth quarter earnings. how should you position yourself. our -- doesn't seen surge being a catalyst, so what is? let's welcome craig berger. good to have you on the program. >> thanks for having me. >> why will they not be a catalyst? >> you know, i don't get a strong certains. the economy is exposed to the pc sector being impacted by the thai flood situation so the p.
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c sector is a bit under pressure. it's probably a buys opportunity ahead of mobile world congress. if it doesn't set off, then it's still an opportunity. >> let's say it has a surprise to the upside. one of your thesis is that it's cheaper than your peers. if a spry to the upside and stock goes higheren then perhaps it's not as cheap as it was just a couple days prior. does that change your thesis? >> obviously the closer it gets to 20, the less we like it. it's just based on the company's products and where it plays. so it's not a stock i would recommend.
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>> good question. how do you think they'll impact nvidia over the next six months, two quarters? >> over the next two quarters there won't be that much of an impact, because they're just beginning to roll out. it's really intel's efforts to stave off the windows and arms threat in 14 and 15. so i think it will get traction. meanwhile, you have the parallel impact, where some others will be trying to take some of intel's core net book -- >> let me ask you about texas instruments, right? for a guy who has upgraded the stock, you don't sound ought that convinced yourself. if you look at earns not being a catalyst, and later on you note the kindle fire as well. how do you see that all shanking out then?
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>> i don't believe in cherry picking my data points. i believe in getting good information and putting it out there. i do this nvidia hag solid -- going into the htc endeavor, going into lg's x3 smartphones. those will be flagship smartphones. is it enough? not enough? it's hard to say for sure, but i do know the sector's had a huge run. in order to find names with value, you have to look at the stocks that will lagged a bit. at this point it would be an nvidia, make an international rectifie rectifier. >> let me keep you around in case there's a trader question. smp, cut the to a market weight, on the heels of nonthe outperformance year to date, but sort of what you've been
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speaking to. weiss? >> yes, we've seen that downgraded. but this new product cycle. so craig, with that in the backdrop. which are the companies most levered to apple at this point? >> the companies more levered to apple in my sector, in the chip would really be qualcomm, broadcom, and a couple others names, skyworks swks is the ticker there, and crus is highly leveraged, so a few of the biggest ones. >> i do have to acknowledge that if the sector has had a great run, i think only out3r67d by the home builders, is there a bit of overperformance that needs to be shaved off? >> probably the sector is due
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for a pullback, maybe a bit of a sell-off here. i was kind of interested in downgrading stocks, but the fact is we're early into the semiconductor up cycle, which should play out over the next nine months, so the fundamentals are still on the com, if you will, so i think it's too early to downgrade the stocks. i think we're going to get there. >> interesting, craig, great to have you on the show. >> thank you so much. >> talk to you tonight. >> two of them on his list are two the of ones i love. don't own either right now? >> why not? >> there's a lot of conviction -- >> because they exploded to new 52-week highs, qualcomm coming off a 52-week high on the downgrates that steven mentioned. a lot of people are getting nervous. pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered, i wanted to take
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some off. >> and that's the discussion. >> i own both. i would still with the long-term holds. they're not trading stocks at this point. they are vulnerable to a slight correction. up next, they have always been man's best friends, but now helping companies on the street rake in profits. how it's a booming $41 billion industry and which stocks could help you pay the trend, when we come back. [ tires squeal, engine revs ] ♪ ♪ ♪
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coming up on "power lunch," we begin a week of power players. a five-star fund manager called one of the best pickers of european stocks. apple at 500. can anything stop it? new details of the battle with samsung. in honor of the westminster dog show, we're releasing the hounds. stocks that may be flying under the radar. now back to scott on the "halftime report." scotty? >> thank you so much, sue. we have a tweet in from @mr. streetsweeper. take a look. dr. j. we've talked about the
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performance in semiconductors especialtily. >> and steven jobs and the engineers over at apple, they saw what a.r.m. was working on, so thinks a royalties play. this is not that these guys make chips, though arm is really an ip firm. it's what the people want to run on the iphone and ipad. it's run on both, but could you go somewhere else? the answer is perhaps, and that's why it's in the middle of the range. >> from healthy foods to spa appointments, pampering your pet has become the norm. the business is booming for big companies like petsmart, our very own jane wells joins us from west lake village, california, with that story. hay, jane. >> hey, scott. i'm at the barkley pet hotel and day spat. a very high-end place. this place is nicer than most of the hotels i stay in. cleaner too. the room rates go up to $90 a
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night plus services like the pool, so-called paw-dicures, because we're crazy about our pets. >> i hate to say this, but they are kind of like my children. cesar milan i'm sure would hate that. >> take my friend sherry phoenix, she was several pets, one husband and certain. a grows list of public countries, count on peoplely cherie to spare for expense. >> to me probably 1 or 2,000 are my limit. i wouldn't spend 5 or 10 thousand, but i say that now. well, the purist play is petsmart which has had growth every conveyor for 16 years.
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competition is growing. >> the big question mark is while walmart used used to be oe attack, the question today is amazon on the attack? that's always something we're wrestling with as well. and we think pet smart is relatively well-protected. >> in addition to pet smart, other stocks include abaxis, patterson, reports earnings next week. and ubs says the outlook looks challenging this year especially in the uk. and nwi veterinary supplies just beat on the top and bottom lines. finally one area has been hit by the recession, one of the few. segment of the pet death business at the massive l.a. pet memorial park. >> burying is more expensive. during this last three years we've seen a shift over into e cremations. quite a dramatic shift. and burials have gone down. >> that's because burial starts about $660 plus the headstone. cremations are about half that. but we're not going to talk
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about that right now are we guys? back to you. >> thanks for making me transition off that, jane. appreciate it. >> you're welcome. >> all right. jane wells. see you again too. let's play the pet space. you have three pets, you have four pets. >> i do. >> do you buy any of these names? you're spending a lot of money. >> i love pet smart. i have three dogs. looking for something for my wife too, they're stuff is really nice. but i think it's a great story. i like the stock. i don't own it. i would wait for it to pull back. >> grasso. >> it's the same thing. i have four kids and convinced them all they're allergic. i'll see how long that lasts. pet smart wait for a pull back. >> bk. >> i think pet smart's the way to play this. but every saturday our dogs get a new gift from amazon. >> nice. that's the one-stop shop for grasso. >> that's right. it's my everything name. >> be sure to catch cnbc's special live coverage of the 136th annual all breed west
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minister kennel club tonight 9:00 p.m. and 12:00 a.m. eastern here on cnbc. and up next, should you be bracing for a black swan event out of china's housing sector? >> that was their tv debut. >> bk will make the call after the break. his mic is still open and sharing with the world.
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i want to show you the euro now. basically 132 versus the u.s. dollar. the greek austerity measure passing over the weekend. you brought the euo which is double short the euro. so you think this momentum the
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euro has had over the last week or so is over. >> i sold down to very small short position in the euro. i think we see most of the good news. i think now's the time to get into it. maybe one more news item coming out, but overall the trend is going to be down as they inflate their currency to get out of the pending recession. the recession arrived and going everywhere. >> bk, you said tempered risk on. do you think the euro from here goes higher? >> scott, i have no idea what the politicians in europe are going to do. and that's why the euro is such a hard thing to trade. i have no position on it now. i can make the case that if you pull greece out or at least if you have greece stabilized then there is less of a chance that the ecb prints money. they're not really a money-printing institution. and that would mean the euro goes higher. but, again, it's so difficult to figure out what european politicians are going to do. it's just not a trade for me right now. >> you've traded it often though.
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what do you need to see to make you have an opinion or a trade frankly one way or the other? what makes you get in? >> at the end of the month we have the long-term refinancing operation. over $1 trillion in that. then i want to be short the euro. >> okay. final trades when we come back from the break. so, how was school today ? i have to be a tree in the school play. good. you like trees. well, i like climbing them, but i've never been one. good point. ( captain ) this is your captain speaking. annie gets to be the princess. oh... but she has to kiss a boy.
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